Z-Score Analysis

Z-score momentum is a powerful quantitative momentum tool because it standardizes recent performance against historical norms, creating a statistically robust momentum signal. Here's how it works:

The Z-Score Formula

Z-Score = (Recent 1M Log Returns - Mean of 6M Log Returns) / StdDev of 6M Log Returns

Why It's Effective for Momentum

1. Statistical Significance Detection
  • Identifies when recent 1-month performance is statistically unusual compared to the 6-month baseline
  • Z-scores > +2 indicate strong positive momentum (>95th percentile)
  • Z-scores < -2 indicate strong negative momentum (<5th percentile)
2. Cross-Asset Standardization
  • Normalizes momentum across different assets with varying volatilities
  • A tech stock with 40% annualized vol vs a utility stock with 15% vol can be compared directly
  • Enables portfolio-level momentum ranking
3. Risk-Adjusted Momentum
  • Unlike raw returns, z-score accounts for the typical volatility of each asset
  • A 5% move in a low-vol stock may be more significant than a 10% move in a high-vol stock
  • Volatility-adjusted momentum signal
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